Every number on the TCO calculator has a citation. This page walks through the math, the data sources, and the confidence framework so you can audit what the calculator says about your situation.
Residual values come from a nightly regression over the live AllCars.cy listing population — ~11k active passenger-car listings in Cyprus observed daily. The fit uses LightGBM with five features (make, model, age, mileage band, fuel) producing per-vehicle residuals at each integer age year × 10 mileage bands (0 / 20k / 40k / 60k / 80k / 100k / 130k / 160k / 200k / 250k+). A sample-size floor of n ≥ 10 applies — make/model cells with fewer observations fall back to the class median (e.g., compact EV vs full-size SUV EV). Confidence bands derive from the p10–p90 spread divided by the median.
Sources: LightGBM documentation · AllCars.cy listing population
Petrol, diesel, and LPG baseline prices use the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin
Cyprus row — a published, replicable benchmark updated every Monday. The empirical 5-year
range (€1.30/L low → €1.80/L high) seeds the sensitivity table on the calculator.
Electricity cost for charging an EV uses the EAC residential overnight tariff
governed by CERA Decision 232/2025; the PV toggle assumes
net-metered residential rooftop PV per CERA Decision 04/2020 with the
Cyprus residential self-consumption rate (~70%) sourced from MECI 2024 PV statistics.
When the PV toggle is on, the effective rate becomes
(1 − pv_self_consumption_pct) × elec_price_eur_per_kwh.
Sources: EU Weekly Oil Bulletin · CERA Decision 232/2025 · CERA Decision 04/2020
Annual service cost varies by fuel: €450 petrol / €550 diesel / €400 hybrid & PHEV / €250 electric (sparse Cyprus EV data — wider ±band) / €500 LPG. The figures are an editorial benchmark calibrated against a 3-garage Cyprus cadence survey, capped at ±22% in the confidence model. Tyres assume €200/yr for one wear cycle. Road tax comes from the same Cyprus statute table the AllCars.cy dossier flow uses (CO₂ bands × engine displacement × fuel). EVs are exempt under the 2024 Annual Circulation Tax Law amendment.
Sources: Cyprus Ministry of Finance — Customs & Excise (road tax) · Cyprus Energy Agency
Every monetary cell on the breakdown carries a ±X% tolerance and a colour
tier driven by it. Confident (±0–10%, full brand-accent) is used for
statute-bound cells (road tax = ±0%) and cells with strong primary-source backing
(fuel = ±12% — EU Oil Bulletin's 12-month volatility). Semi-confident
(±10–25%, faded text) covers editorial benchmark cells where data exists but is sparse
(service, tyres, insurance). Uncertain (>±25%, muted italic) is reserved
for residuals on rare models — when the regression sees fewer than 10 observations the
cell is dropped to — rather than rendered with a misleadingly wide band.
Sources: Live confidence-band cells
The grant calculator models the Electromobility Promotion Scheme — Phase H administered by the Cyprus Ministry of Energy, Commerce and Industry (MECI). Base grant €9,000 for a new battery-electric passenger vehicle; the calculator's MSRP figures are taken from manufacturer published prices for the current calendar year (or the next year in Q4, per the scheme's vehicle-year rule). Retention requirement: the vehicle must remain registered to the grantee for at least 24 months. The category structure and eligibility rules are reflected in the calculator's 5-step decision tree.
The specs comparison table on the calculator is populated from a hand-curated YAML
block (range, charge times, boot, 0–100, power, drive) covering the ~20 EVs the
picker offers. Every entry carries a verified_date; a daily CI gate
(scripts/verify_ev_specs.py) fails the build if any entry exceeds 120
days since last verification. We rejected the
API-Ninjas Cars API (ICE-era schema, null on every EV-specific field)
and direct scraping of EV-Database.org (their ToS forbids scraping).
Hand-curated + quarterly verification is the only source that gives us all six rows
across the picker's models without contractual risk.
Sources:
Manufacturer pages (per-row source_url field) ·
EV-Database.org